With regards to California’s economic system, the numbers inform wildly completely different and seemingly incompatible tales — resulting in competing narratives forward of the Nov. 8 election as residents establish jobs, the economic system and inflation as the highest points dealing with the state.

Take GDP: On the one hand, Gov. Gavin Newsom is trumpeting a Bloomberg opinion piece that argues California is poised to overhaul Germany in GDP development and change into the world’s fourth largest economic system. “Whereas critics typically say California’s greatest days are behind us, actuality proves in any other case,” the governor stated in a press release.

The California Enterprise Roundtable — which regularly accuses Sacramento of pursuing insurance policies that place undue burdens on companies — sees it otherwise, arguing in a current press launch that the Golden State is unlikely to go Germany and solely achieved its fifth-place spot as a result of “contraction of the UK economic system within the wake of Brexit.”

• The business group continued: “California’s competitiveness is hampered by its ongoing cost-of-living disaster. … The excessive and rising prices of housing, vitality, meals and different necessities means the greenback right here doesn’t go so far as it does in different international locations.”
• If GDP is adjusted to account for buying parity, California can be eleventh nationally, “struggling to remain above Turkey,” in accordance with the group.

Take (un)employment: California’s unemployment price fell to three.9% in September, tying July for the bottom price recorded in a knowledge sequence stretching again to 1976, the state’s Employment Improvement Division introduced Friday. Newsom’s workplace applauded the 0.2% drop from August’s jobless price of 4.1%, noting that California in September “additionally added jobs for the twelfth consecutive month and has now recovered 99.1% of jobs misplaced to the pandemic-induced recession.”

However California’s unemployment price fell “solely as a result of the variety of Californians within the labor power additionally declined” on a seasonally adjusted foundation by almost 48,000 folks, Michael Bernick, a former EDD director and legal professional at Duane Morris, instructed me in an e mail. He added that the Golden State’s achieve of 6,500 payroll jobs in September was “far under” the greater than 60,000 jobs it averaged including per 30 days by way of July, and solely two sectors — training and well being companies and leisure and hospitality — noticed “vital” job beneficial properties.

• Bernick: “Rate of interest hikes are driving layoffs in finance and associated enterprise service positions. The bizarre job dichotomy within the state continues: hiring freezes and layoffs in white collar positions and continued employee shortages in direct care and direct service positions.”

Take financial well being: Regardless of the ravages of the pandemic, California’s poverty price fell from 16.4% in 2019 to a projected 11.7% in fall 2021, largely as a result of expanded federal and state social security internet applications, in accordance with a Tuesday report from the Public Coverage Institute of California. However greater than 1 / 4 of Californians are nonetheless residing in or close to poverty, the research discovered.

One other Tuesday report from PPIC gave off equally blended indicators. It discovered that:

• Though unemployment charges throughout racial and ethnic teams are nearing pre-pandemic ranges — with Latino and white Californians really experiencing decrease jobless charges — unemployment has elevated amongst Asian and Black Californians, which “may recommend fairness considerations amid ongoing financial volatility.”
• For the primary time in many years, California has extra job openings than job seekers — which has expanded alternatives for staff and pushed up wages however concurrently restricted companies’ development and elevated costs.
• Though private-sector staff’ wages have elevated 14% since 2020, they’ve really fallen 1.3% as soon as adjusted for inflation.

Time to vote: Discover out the whole lot you have to learn about voting earlier than California’s election ends Nov. 8 within the CalMatters Voter Information, which incorporates info on races, candidates and propositions, in addition to movies, interactives and marketing campaign finance information. And should you missed CalMatters’ occasion final week on the seven poll measures, you may watch it right here and skim a quick recap right here.

Different Tales You Ought to Know

---

1
How would a windfall earnings tax work?

Newsom took his combat in opposition to oil and gasoline firms up a notch on Tuesday, citing Valero’s $2.82 billion in earnings from July to September — up from $463 million throughout the identical interval final 12 months — as proof that California ought to enact a windfall earnings tax on the business and return the surplus cash to customers. “Massive oil is ripping Californians off, climbing gasoline costs and making document earnings,” Newsom stated in a press release. “As Valero jacked up their earnings by over 500% in only a 12 months, Californians had been paying for it on the pump as a substitute of passing down these financial savings.”

• There’s been a variety of speak about a windfall earnings tax currently — however how precisely would it not work, on condition that no state has enacted one earlier than? And has it achieved its meant objective in different international locations which have given it a attempt? CalMatters’ Grace Gedye takes a better look.

In the meantime, California gasoline costs are dropping at a near-record rate, with the common value for a gallon of standard cresting $5.71 on Tuesday, down from greater than $6 final week, in accordance with AAA. Newsom’s workplace attributed the steep decline to “the governor’s actions,” together with permitting refineries to start producing cheaper winter-blend gasoline sooner than traditional.

2
Sports activities betting measure fails to qualify for 2024

Relying on the way you take a look at it, the way forward for sports activities betting in California simply bought roughly sophisticated. Late final week, the supporters of a proposed 2024 initiative to allow Native American tribes to function each in-person and on-line sports activities betting introduced that they’d failed to assemble sufficient signatures to place it on the poll. The marketing campaign behind the measure — sponsored by a coalition of California tribes — stated by way of spokesperson Roger Salazar that “we made a strategic choice this 12 months to pay attention our full sources on defeating Proposition 27,” considered one of two dueling measures to legalize sports activities betting on the November poll.

• Prop. 27 would enable licensed tribes and enormous, well-established gaming firms to supply cellular and on-line sports activities betting for adults 21 and older exterior Native American tribal lands. 
• Prop. 26 would enable Native American casinos and California’s 4 horse race tracks to supply in-person sports activities betting.

Polls recommend that each Props. 26 and 27 are more likely to fail even after the campaigns on either side of the initiatives raised greater than $440 million. The backers of the 2 measures have admitted their doubtless defeat, whilst they gear up for the following iteration of the battle.

• Salazar: “After the November election, we are going to regroup with California tribes and different key stakeholders to develop a 2024 sports activities wagering initiative that gives the most effective choices for tribes and all Californians.”

3
Shake it off

The 5.1-magnitude earthquake that struck close to San Jose on Tuesday served as a rattling reminder of the worth of communication throughout pure disasters: About 100,000 folks obtained a notification from the Earthquake Warning California app earlier than shaking began, Brian Ferguson, deputy director for disaster communication and public affairs for the California Governor’s Workplace of Emergency Companies, instructed CNN. The workplace urged residents to sign up for early warnings, noting that “these alerts can present worthwhile seconds of life-saving notification earlier than you are feeling the bottom shaking.” Newsom’s workplace additionally tweeted a link to the app. No vital damages or accidents associated to the earthquake had been reported Tuesday.

• California can be providing grants of as a lot as $3,000 for eligible householders to seismically retrofit their houses in preparation for the following huge quake. Registration is open by way of Nov. 29, although the web site warned Tuesday that candidates might expertise delays as a result of “unusually excessive website visitors.” The state goals to supply a minimum of 15,000 grants in additional than 500 at-risk ZIP codes, in accordance with the San Francisco Chronicle.

In the meantime, state regulators on Tuesday unveiled a proposed $155.4 million nice for PG&E shareholders for violations associated to the 2020 Zogg Fireplace in Shasta County, which killed 4 folks and destroyed greater than 200 constructions. PG&E now has 30 days to resolve whether or not to pay the penalty or to request a listening to.

Different issues value your time

---

Some tales might require a subscription to learn

Los Angeles police investigating if racist recording taped illegally. // Related Press

Democratic registration is rising in California, however not with this one group. // San Francisco Chronicle

Residents flip to poll field to combat new California housing mandates. // KQED

Maienschein faces stiff competitors to retain state Meeting seat. // San Diego Union-Tribune

A giant-money mayor’s race is shaping as much as be a combat for the soul of Silicon Valley. // San Francisco Chronicle

Ex-Anaheim mayor refuses to reveal emails amid FBI corruption investigation. // Los Angeles Occasions

How Supreme Courtroom choice on affirmative motion may have an effect on California non-public faculties. // EdSource

California sees enhance in RSV, a respiratory sickness that may be harmful for infants. // Los Angeles Occasions

Sufferers died from COVID-19 drug remedy at two California hospitals, fits allege. // Mercury Information

A number of Bay Space well being care strikes replicate a workforce decimated by labor scarcity. // KQED

Adjuncts sue California group faculty system over unpaid work hours. // EdSource

Life and demise row: A California jail homicide ripples by way of time. // Los Angeles Occasions

S.F.’s reply to security considerations is extra group ambassadors. // San Francisco Customary

San Diegans are falling into homelessness sooner than the area can home them. // Voice of San Diego

Bay Space is the one California area the place houses are promoting for much less than final 12 months. // Mercury Information

Why did Cotopaxi go away San Francisco? // The Atlantic