Masters winner Jon Rahm showcased Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers (MODG) all weekend at Augusta Nationwide, and one analyst sees a number of tailwinds for the inventory.
“We imagine the market has but to completely admire Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers’ transformation right into a preeminent golf leisure platform,” Jefferies analyst Randy Konik wrote in a shopper notice revealed on Monday. “Topgolf is a high-quality asset with shortage worth, enabling Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers to widen its complete addressable market (TAM) and increase its development algorithm. Tailwinds to golf stay favorable and Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers is uniquely positioned to capitalize on rising curiosity within the sport.”
Konik’s $56 worth goal on the inventory assumes 171% upside from present ranges.
Callaway lured Rahm away from rival Taylormade with a multi-year sponsorship contract in 2021.
The 28-year outdated Spaniard gained the Masters utilizing Callaway’s new Paradym woods, Apex irons, Jaws wedges, and Chromesoft balls. Rahm’s golf bag was emblazoned with the Callaway brand, whereas the strap bore Topgolf — the golf expertise model Callaway purchased for $2.66 billion in 2021.
Rahm is amongst a bunch of different up-and-coming, high-profile golfers Callaway sponsors, together with Sam Burns and Xander Schauffele.
Regardless of Callaway’s youthful group performing typically nicely on the hyperlinks — which lends itself to distinguished placement on TV and social media — shares have misplaced about 8% prior to now yr. The inventory trades at a 20% low cost to its five-year common enterprise worth to EBITDA (earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation and amortization) ratio.
Jefferies’ Konik thinks the inventory worth displays a “pressured shopper,” rising rates of interest, and recession fears weighing on dear tools gross sales. To that finish, by way of the primary two months of the season golf rounds performed are up only one.8% in comparison with 2022 in keeping with knowledge from the Nationwide Golf Basis.
On the similar time, Konik listed a number of causes Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers inventory appears too good to disregard.
First, inhabitants demographics are favorable to the golf trade.
Konik estimated that 60-plus yr olds characterize practically half of annual rounds performed and a higher portion of annual golf tools spending. With present inhabitants projections suggesting the variety of folks aged 70-74 will hit 18.8 million in 2035 (in contrast with 14.8 million in 2020), it stands to cause that can drive a significant carry in golf tools gross sales that ought to profit Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers.
Second, Konik famous that since 2013 the common main membership launch worth has moved up an “spectacular” $180, or 46%, from $390 to $570.
“In our view, the buyer has given unique tools producers permission to proceed to push the envelope, by way of worth, as long as there’s ample innovation to again it,” Konik wrote.
Third, Konik believes buyers don’t “admire” the expansion potential of the Topgolf and attire model TravisMathew underneath Callaway’s tent. Topgolf Callaway Manufacturers not too long ago lifted its estimate for Topgolf unit potential to 250 from 200, and TravisMathew is on observe for $1 billion in gross sales — up from $300 million in 2022.
“In our view, it is a hidden gem,” Konik wrote of TravisMathew.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Government Editor. Observe Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn. Recommendations on offers, mergers, activist conditions or the rest? E-mail [email protected]
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